At the end of December 2024, President Prabowo Subianto made a statement that sparked widespread debate: “Don’t fear deforestation,” he said, equating palm oil plantations with natural forests because both have green leaves and absorb carbon. Delivered before officials and business leaders, the remark aimed to push for palm oil expansion as part of Indonesia’s energy self-sufficiency program through biodiesel. Yet, one year later, in December 2025, those words echo amid devastating flash floods and landslides in Sumatra that have killed over 900 people and displaced thousands. Was this mere economic rhetoric, or a recipe for ecological disaster? This feature traces its aftermath.
Background: From Campaign to Policy
Prabowo, elected president in 2024, has long been a proponent of the palm oil industry. Indonesia, the world’s largest palm oil producer, relies on this commodity for about 60% of its agricultural exports. The “don’t fear deforestation” statement emerged as he advocated for more palm oil land for biofuels, calling it a “gift from God” that could reduce fuel imports. For Prabowo, palm oil isn’t just a crop—it’s an economic solution: creating millions of jobs and supporting the B35 biodiesel program (35% palm oil blend).
However, the view was immediately criticized as a dangerous oversimplification. Environmental experts from Universitas Muhammadiyah Surakarta called palm oil plantations incapable of replacing natural forests. On X, similar reactions poured in: former Maritime Affairs Minister Susi Pudjiastuti urged Prabowo to investigate forest damage from logging and mining, calling for a moratorium on such activities. One user highlighted how forest conversion to palm oil in Central Tapanuli Regency triggered flash floods in Sibolga.
The 2025 Disasters: Stark Evidence of Deforestation’s Impact
2025 has tested Prabowo’s statement harshly. Catastrophic floods ravaged Sumatra, including Aceh, North Sumatra, and West Sumatra, claiming over 1,000 lives across Asia and causing billions in damages. Greenpeace Indonesia labeled the floods a “final warning” for the Prabowo administration to revise forest policies. Official data shows deforestation reached 240,000 hectares in 2024, down from prior years but enough to exacerbate flooding due to lost water absorption capacity.
Activists blame palm oil expansion as a primary culprit. In X posts, groups like JATAM Nasional pointed out how palm oil replaces forests, leading to soil degradation and recurrent floods. Even Environment and Forestry Minister Raja Juli Antoni faced backlash over plans to open 20 million hectares of forest for food and energy, dubbed a “looting operation” by netizens. Greenpeace warned that this area—equivalent to twice the size of Java—could worsen extreme weather and crop failures.
On the ground, indigenous communities and farmers feel the social impacts. Agrarian conflicts have surged, with communal lands seized for corporate palm oil. In Aceh, residents appealed to the UN for aid, bypassing the central government reluctant to declare a national disaster. Prabowo responded by vowing to crack down on illegal logging, but criticism persists: “Palm oil is still palm oil,” one netizen remarked, alluding to Prabowo’s own business ties in the sector.
Global Responses: From Criticism to Economic Threats
Global media like Mongabay and Reuters have highlighted Prabowo’s statement as an “oversimplification,” risking a reversal of Indonesia’s deforestation decline. Yale Environment 360 predicted palm oil expansion could clear up to 2,880 square miles of forest for biofuels. Internationally on X, accounts like Orangutan Land Trust emphasized threats to orangutan habitats and shrinking indigenous spaces.
Economic threats loom large. The European Union’s Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) requires deforestation-free palm oil for exports, potentially costing Indonesia market share to Malaysia if non-compliant. Reuters reported the military’s seizure of 3.7 million hectares of palm oil land for self-sufficiency, raising concerns among global investors like Wilmar and Cargill over land rights.
Analysis: Why This Statement Is Problematic
Prabowo’s remark reduces forests to “green leaves” and carbon sinks, ignoring ecological roles like water regulation, biodiversity, and erosion prevention. Palm oil, while absorbing carbon, stores 10 times less than natural forests. Socially, palm oil expansion often sparks conflicts, as in Sumatra where indigenous groups lose land. Economically? Yes, it supports millions of workers, but the costs of disasters like the 2025 floods far outweigh the gains.
On X, the narrative of “palm oil is a tree” has become a joke but also an alarm: “Rice harvested today wasn’t planted yesterday afternoon,” one user warned, highlighting long-term impacts. Trend Asia spotlighted how such policies threaten climate justice, with vulnerable communities as victims.
Conclusion: Time for Ecological Repentance?
One year on, Indonesia faces a bitter reality: Sumatra’s floods aren’t “natural disasters,” but human-made consequences. Prabowo can choose: pursue short-term palm oil expansion for economic gains, or prioritize forest restoration for a sustainable future. As Greenpeace puts it, “This is the final warning.” For the people, the question is simple: Are we willing to trade forests for palm oil while floods strike every season?
